Why Do Many Scientists Think the Risk of Large-Scale Pandemics Is Increasing?
Written and Fact-Checked by 1440
Updated August 22, 2024
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Public health crises are becoming more common. The most recent example, COVID-19, had a devastating impact, contributing to 14.9 million excess deaths during a two-year pandemic. This was the most dramatic example, but widespread diseases are an ongoing problem. COVID variations are still circulating, as is influenza. Others, like tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, malaria, and sexually transmitted infections, impact millions of people globally.
Public awareness about pandemics is heightened after COVID-19. However, health agencies like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) have always tracked the latest outbreaks carefully. Meanwhile, researchers are studying factors that affect the immune response to such diseases, including hormonal balance and overall health. The goal of all these monitoring and research efforts is to increase preparedness and gain insights to help respond to future pandemics.
Detection and treatment advances, virus and infection discovery, and response planning have moved at a rapid pace since the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s vital to find quality news sources to help you stay informed about this topic. Good reporting is essential for subjects like health and medicine because of the prevalence of misinformation.
Here is a look at the risk of the current and future health problems becoming widespread pandemics.
Environmental Changes and Their Impact on Pandemic Risk
Environmental problems increase risk for humans in a number of different areas. Issues like climate change can worsen public health issues by creating conditions that infectious diseases need to spread.
Meanwhile, habitat destruction due to deforestation and urban development brings animals and the diseases they carry closer to humans. This trend is important because most epidemics and pandemics start when diseases pass from animals to humans.
Let’s look at these factors more closely below.
Climate Change
Climate change creates conditions in which diseases thrive. For instance, warmer, wetter weather is ideal for mosquitos that carry malaria, dengue fever, and other viruses and parasitic infections. The same is true for other disease carriers, like ticks or rodents.
Warmer temperatures also allow for the spread of bacteria and fungi that cause infections. One study in the Lancet Planetary Health predicted an increased transmission season for both malaria and dengue fever in tropical Africa. The researchers also found that the malaria zone had widened to include high-altitude areas that were previously too cold for malarial mosquitoes.
Malaria is just one example of how changing conditions increase the spread of infectious diseases.
Deforestation and Habitat Destruction
Deforestation continues to be an issue, with the world losing about 10 million hectares (38,000 square miles) of forest every year. The loss of habitat forces wildlife to come into close contact with humans. This is an issue because many of the deadliest infectious diseases started by jumping from animals to humans.
These so-called zoonotic diseases include ebola, which passed from bats or primates, and SARS, a virus that came from civet cats. Domesticated animals and livestock can also be infected by wild animals, subsequently passing the disease on to humans. Though there is no concrete evidence, many scientists think that COVID-19 was a zoonotic disease because related viruses began infecting humans in a similar way.
Globalization and Increased Travel Possibilities
Zoonotic diseases and the increased transmission range can cause more public health crises. However, diseases often require human-to-human transmission to spread widely.
Globalization, the prevalence of air travel, and the increasing size of cities make such human-to-human transmission possible. Here is a closer look at how these factors increase the likelihood of pandemics.
International Travel and Trade
Air travel connects countries across the globe, while global trade necessitates the constant flow of goods and business people across borders.
People can carry illnesses to new countries in a matter of hours and infect others before they show symptoms. For instance, the CDC found cases of COVID-19 spread on flights between Asia and North America despite monitoring at airports because people were not symptomatic but were contagious during travel and didn’t show signs of illness until arriving.
Urbanization and Population Density
In 2023, 56% of the world population lived in cities. Forecasts suggest that this figure will rise to around 70% by the middle of the century. In such urban areas, people live closely together. This proximity increases the chances that diseases will spread.
According to the CDC, the COVID-19 pandemic, death rates were much higher in urban areas (97.9 deaths per 100,000 people) than they were in small and medium-sized cities (78.2 and 75.0 per 100,000, respectively).
Antimicrobial Resistance
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria mutate and develop the ability to overcome antibiotic treatments. The mutations typically occur when people use antibiotics incorrectly. Because of the flawed regimen, bacteria survive and pass on their survival characteristics to future bacteria generations, which become resistant to traditional drugs. The impact of AMR is that easily treatable illnesses do more damage to patients because they do not respond to medications.
The widespread use of antibiotics in human and veterinary medicine and in livestock sets the stage of bacteria mutations. The lengthy and complicated treatments for AMR infections also increase the likelihood that the problem will spread to others. Some bacterial infections, like TB, are airborne, leading to
AMR is especially dangerous for people with compromised immune systems or co-morbidities. For instance, people with autoimmune diseases rely on antibiotics to treat infections that could otherwise become fatal. Those with diabetes and cancer patients can also suffer complications from common infections that have become drug resistant.
Wildlife Trade and Wet Markets
Since many pandemics involve zoonotic diseases, they start in places where people commonly encounter wildlife. Two high-risk zones are places where wildlife collectors trade animals and wet markets where people shop for live or freshly processed animal products.
The Lancet Planetary Health points out that many recent outbreaks originated in wet markets, and the most popular theories on the origins of COVID-19 also involve such markets. Because of this link, making efforts to classify and regulate these places and monitor them for diseases are essential steps in managing the risk of virus outbreaks.
Regulatory Efforts and Challenges
Regulation of wet markets and wildlife trade are important for avoiding zoonotic diseases. The World Health Organization offers guidelines that involve prohibiting the slaughter and sale of animals in wet markets. The organization also implores authorities to make and enforce sanitation and health requirements.
These steps are challenging as they go against tradition and widely accepted practices in some countries. There are also concerns that strict regulations would drive some vendors underground where regulation would be impossible.
Quality information and fact-based reporting are essential for keeping up with health-related issues. It’s important to find good health news sources so that you can understand the real risks associated with pandemics and what authorities and scientists are doing to contain public health crises.
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this website is for general informational purposes only. It is not intended as medical advice and should not be used as a substitute for professional consultation, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have read on this website. If you think you may have a medical emergency, call your doctor or emergency services immediately.